Struggle For Egypt's Future Just Beginning

WAEL Ghonim, the charismatic young Google executive who helped launch the protests in Cairo's Tahrir Square, sounded the trumpet in a Twitter message: "Mission accomplished. Thanks to all the brave young Egyptians." But the struggle for the future of Egypt is just beginning, and the next stage is one in which the US truly can help.

By David Ignatius
February 16, 2011 12:00AM
Courtesy Of "The Australian"

The resignation of president Hosni Mubarak on Saturday (AEDT) was an astonishing victory for young internet revolutionaries - and for their allies in the Muslim Brotherhood, who have been battling Mubarak since before most of the protesters were born. This diffuse opposition movement must now help rewrite Egypt's constitution and election laws, rebuild a shaken economy and restore stability after the heady 18-day revolution.

The best thing that can be said about the Tahrir uprising is that it was truly made in Egypt. US President Barack Obama got hammered at home for not trying to dictate the outcome, but he was right in his initial instinct that America can influence events best when it does so quietly, behind the scenes.

The White House (prodded by cavilling news media) began to violate that rule as the crisis wore on, with officials making statements every few hours - inserting the US in the crisis and at the same time insisting it was a matter for Egyptians to resolve. This came across as a parody of pragmatism, a sense that Washington would accept whatever worked.

Listening to the babbling official voices in Washington dispensing advice to Egypt over the past two weeks, my strongest feeling was: just shut up. Nobody wants to be seen capitulating to US demands. The right tactic was offstage pressure on Mubarak and his allies, as Obama argued.

Now the US doesn't have to be quite so reticent. The good guys have won, and they have appeared to do so largely on their own, which makes victory even sweeter. But they need help of a kind that the US and its allies uniquely can provide. I hope Washington will see this as a moment like the Marshall Plan in 1947 or the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The Arab world is at an inflection point: if Egyptians can make a transition to a strong, secure and prosperous democracy, it will affect the region for decades.

The first challenge is economic. Egypt has pushed economic growth to an average of about 5 per cent, but that's not enough to achieve escape velocity from poverty and stagnation. With more than half of its population younger than 25, Egypt needs growth approaching that of India or China.

"Calculations indicate that growth rates of 6-7 per cent on a sustainable basis are needed in order to provide jobs for new entrants and to reduce unemployment," writes Institute of International Finance economist George Abed.

The Tahrir protests may have exhilarated Egyptian internet moguls but they were bad for business. Capital has been fleeing, and spreads on Egyptian debt have widened sharply. US economic and financial support can help restore confidence.

A second challenge will be the simple mechanics of democratic elections. This is an area where US and European organisations have deep experience, after aiding the democratisation of Eastern Europe. When the Egyptians ask for help, we should make a massive effort.

A final worry is security. We know from history how vulnerable countries can be in months following revolutionary change. Provocateurs will try to destabilise the transition and hijack the process. Today's optimism could be shattered by a wave of car-bombings, say, or kidnappings of foreigners of the sort that shut down Beirut and Baghdad. Egypt is lucky to have a strong military that the protesters see as an ally.

The best safeguard against Muslim terrorists, hopefully, will be the sleeping giant that is the Muslim Brotherhood. Members of this group have been sharply critical of al-Qa'ida, which gives reason for hope. The Brotherhood, for better or worse, has won a seat at Egypt's governing table.

Washington Post Writers Group